A new study was published in Reviews of Geophysics, determining how much climate warming will happen if carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere doubles. The new study narrows the range of temperature rise, but makes it more likely that Earth will be hotter. One of the scientists who worked on the study says it is a “5-alarm fire” for the earth.
The new estimate of hotter temperature is expressed as a range, and is most likely to be 4.7-7.0 degrees Fahrenheit (2.6-3.9 degrees Celsius). The older estimate was a wider range of 2.7-8.1 degrees F (1.5-4.5 degrees C). Under different models to measure robustness, the range could be 4.1-8.1 degrees F (2.3-4.5 degrees C).
The earth is already about 1.2 degrees C warmer than in pre-industrial times. The goal of the Paris Accord on Climate is to try to keep the rise to 2.0 degrees C.
This new study helps us make better plans. Because the lower range is hotter than we thought until now, it means we need to lower global CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030. That may seem daunting, but we have tools at hand: more solar and wind power, more storage, more energy efficiency, and more electric vehicles of all types (cars, buses, and trucks) and the infrastructure to charge them.
We need to redouble our efforts to get clean energy plans adopted at every level of government: municipal, state, and federal (including COVID recovery plans). Please let your elected officials know you care about climate change, talk to your friends and family about climate, and vote for candidates who have strong climate plans.
Read news about the study in The Guardian here. Read news about the study in the Washington Post here. Read news about the study in the New York Times here. They are slightly different so we are sharing all of them.
